OPEC Trims 2026 Oil Demand Forecast, Raises 2027 Outlook | Mariner News
OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecasts, trimming growth expectations for 2026 while significantly raising its outlook for 2027, signalling a temporary slowdown preceding a substantial rebound for seaborne oil trade.
The organization now projects global oil demand to grow by 380,000 b/d in 2026, a notable decrease from the 600,000 b/d growth forecast in August. Total global oil demand is expected to average approximately 105.8 million b/d for the year, according to OPEC’s September Monthly Oil Market report released this week.
The 2026 slowdown is predominantly driven by an anticipated decline of around 110,000 b/d in OECD countries, while non-OECD consumption is still expected to increase by about 490,000 b/d.
However, the outlook shifts sharply for 2027, with OPEC raising its global oil demand growth forecast to 2.4 million b/d, up from 2.2 million b/d in its August report. This substantial acceleration points to a renewed period of strong consumption, with significant implications for the tanker market.
Non-OECD countries are expected to account for the bulk of next year’s increase, with demand rising by around 2 million b/d, while OECD consumption is forecast to grow by approximately 400,000 b/d. This strong non-OECD growth is a key indicator for continued long-haul crude and product tanker demand, as these regions are typically net importers.
Transportation fuels are anticipated to be the primary driver of this renewed demand growth, directly boosting requirements for product tankers. Additionally, petrochemical feedstocks, particularly with new capacity coming online in China, are expected to contribute significantly, suggesting increased trade for specialized chemical and product carriers in Asian markets.
The revised forecasts indicate that while the immediate future may see a slight tempering of oil demand growth, the medium-term trajectory remains robust, particularly in developing economies, underpinning sustained demand for seaborne crude and refined products.
