Iran Nuclear Stance Reverses Oil Slide as Hormuz Attacks Hit Record

Iran’s refusal to allow enriched nuclear material to leave the country has halted a month-long slide in oil prices, forcing the shipping industry to confront a record-breaking surge in vessel attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude rose 1.3% to $92.71 a barrel on Wednesday, reversing a trend that saw prices drop up to 21% earlier this month. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy reported 37 ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz during October, the highest monthly total since the conflict began.

Tehran’s security chief stated that no enriched nuclear material will leave the country, directly contradicting US demands that nuclear matters be part of negotiations. This hardening of positions follows a drone attack on the Russian port of Ust-Luga and the mining of two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz by the Revolutionary Guards Navy.

Why it matters

The record 37 attacks in October prove that the physical threat to tonnage is decoupling from the diplomatic narrative. While Middle East supply is recovering—with Saudi and Iraqi output returning to pre-war levels—the safety of the transit remains compromised. Owners and charterers cannot rely on the recent 21% drop in Brent prices as a signal of operational safety.

Even if a diplomatic deal eventually materializes, LSEG Oil Research indicates that flows will remain restricted by mine clearance requirements and prohibitive insurance costs. The recent mining of two tankers in the strait confirms that the waterway is physically contested, regardless of the price on the screen. For tanker owners, the risk of hitting a naval mine on so-called unauthorized routes is now a concrete operational reality rather than a theoretical threat.

Furthermore, the 30% reduction in Russian refining capacity due to drone attacks will likely tighten the global product market. This shift occurs even as Middle East crude outages subside to 3.8 million barrels per day. The combination of record attacks in the Gulf and reduced refining capacity in the Baltic suggests a period of high volatility for both freight rates and insurance premiums.

What to watch

Official US crude inventory data due later Wednesday will confirm if the 9-million-barrel build reported by the American Petroleum Institute holds, potentially capping the current price rally.

Source: MarineLink