Container Freight Benchmarks Diverge as Transpacific Spot Rates Soften

Global container freight benchmarks are providing a fragmented view of the market, with the NYSHEX Freight Index (NYFI) recording gains across all five monitored trade lanes while Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) and the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) entered negative territory.

The most significant divergence appeared on the Transpacific. NYFI reported rate increases of 1.92% to the US West Coast ($7,724.52) and 1.89% to the East Coast ($10,125.18). Conversely, Drewry’s assessment showed a sharp decline, with Shanghai-Los Angeles falling 6% to $7,514 and Shanghai-New York dropping 5% to $9,631.

Methodology Drives Benchmark Disconnect

The disconnect between these leading indicators stems from their underlying data. NYFI tracks rates for containers that have actually shipped, reflecting realized market conditions from recent bookings. Drewry’s WCI assesses current spot market quotes. The divergence suggests that while carriers successfully captured higher rates during the tail end of the peak season, those gains are now eroding in the immediate spot market.

This cooling trend is supported by softening demand projections. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has forecast an 11% month-on-month decline in US ocean import volumes for November. This anticipated slump is already influencing carrier behavior, with Drewry reporting six blank sailings scheduled for the Transpacific in the coming week, up from five in the current period.

Volatility and Recovery in Other Lanes

While the Transpacific weakens, the Transatlantic market is experiencing extreme short-term volatility. NYFI recorded an 18.77% surge in Eastbound rates to $1,124.31, nearly fully reversing a 19.28% decline from the previous week. This see-saw movement highlights a market struggling to find a stable floor amid fluctuating capacity.

On the Asia-North Europe trade, the outlook remains cautious. NYFI reported a 5.40% recovery, and Drewry’s Shanghai-Rotterdam route edged up 1%. However, the sustainability of these gains is in doubt. While carriers have announced higher Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates for November, Drewry noted that available capacity and weak demand may prevent these increases from sticking.

The overall stability of Chinese benchmarks—with the SCFI and CCFI edging up by 0.16% and 0.30% respectively—suggests a market in transition. As the realized rates captured by NYFI begin to align with the softening spot rates reported by Drewry and FBX, the industry is likely entering a period of downward pressure as the year-end volume lull takes hold.

Source: Container News