Tanker Market: Iraq Crude Oil Exports Down So Far in 2025

Iraq crude oil exports have kept on retreating during the first five months of 2025, continuing the downward trend of 2024 at a heightened pace. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “in Jan-Dec 2024, global crude oil loadings went up by a modest +0.4% yo-y to 2194.6 mln tonnes, excluding all cabotage trade, according to vessels tracking data from LSEG. This year started even worse, with global crude oil loadings in Jan-May 2025 down by -2.0% y-o-y to just 909.9 mln tonnes. Exports from the Arabian Gulf were down by -1.4% y-o-y to 362.8 mln t in Jan-May 2025, accounting for 39.9% of seaborne crude trade. Exports from Russian ports (including oil of Kazakh origin) also declined by -7.3% y-o-y in Jan-May 2025 to 92.5 mln tonnes, or 10.2% of global trade. From South America, exports increased by +2.0% y-o-y to 86.6 mln t, with a share of 9.5%. From the USA, exports volumes declined by -9.8% y-o-y at 75.7 mln t in Jan-May 2025, an 8.3% share. From South East Asia exports declined by -13.5% y-o-y to 48.0 mln t in JanMay 2025 (but this inevitably also reflects changes in the re-export of Russian origin volumes)”.

Source: Banchero Costa

According to the shipbroker, “in terms of demand, the top seaborne importer of crude oil in Jan-May 2025 was Mainland China, accounting for 22.8% of global trade. Volumes into China declined by -4.1% y-o-y to 204.2 mln t in Jan-May 2025. Imports to the EU27 declined by -6.7% y-o-y to 186.4 mln t, accounting for 20.8% of global trade. To ASEAN, imports increased by +1.1% y-o-y to 114.5 mln t (again this includes Russian volumes later reexported elsewhere in Asia). To India, volumes increased +1.9% y-oy to 101.3 mln t in Jan-May 2025. Iraq is the second largest seaborne exporter of crude oil in the Arabian Gulf after Saudi Arabia, the third in the world behind Saudi Arabia and Russia, and still just ahead of the USA”.

Banchero Costa added that “in Jan-Dec 2024, Iraqi ports accounted for 8.2% of global crude oil loadings. This only covers cargoes loading in Basrah (pretty much the only loading port in Iraq), and does not even include the exports which go by pipeline via Turkey, i.e. Kirkuk grade oil from Northern Iraq. About 83 percent of volumes loaded in Basrah are carried in VLCCs, and about 16 percent isloaded in Suezmaxes. In the full 12 months of 2024, Iraq exported 178.6 mln tonnes of crude oil, which was a -0.8% y-o-y decline. In terms of destinations for the shipments from Iraq, it was for many years a head to head between Mainland China and India, with Europe in third place. In 2024, however, China clearly moved ahead, accounting for 34.4% of Iraqi crude exports, with India in second place with a 27.1% share”.

“In the full 12 months of 2024, Iraq shipped 61.4 mln tonnes to Mainland China, which represents a +6.6% y-o-y increase from 57.6 mln tonnes in JanDec 2023. Iraq also shipped 48.4 mln tonnes in Jan-Dec 2024 to India, which was just +0.1% y-o-y from 48.4 mln tonnes in 2023. The third top destination was the EU, with 31.2 mln tonnes, or 17.4% of Iraq’stotal exportsin Jan-Dec 2024. Shipments from Iraq to the EU declined by -3.5% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2024 from 32.3 mln t in Jan-Dec 2023. In fourth place was South Korea with 14.9 mln tonnes in Jan-Dec 2024, up +7.7% y-o-y. Shipments from Iraq to the United States rebounded by +4.7% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2024 to 10.5 mln tonnes”, the shipbroker added.

Source: Banchero Costa

It concluded that “in Jan-May 2025, exports from Iraq continued with the negative trend, with 71.2 mln tonnes, down -5.19% yo-y from 75.1 mln t in the same period of last year. Shipments from Iraq to China increased further by +6.2% y-o-y in Jan-May 2025 to 25.9 mln t, from 24.4 mln t in Jan-May 2024, and accounted for 36.3% of Iraqi exportsthis year. Volumes from Iraq to India declined by -7.1% y-o-y in Jan-May 2025 to 19.9 mln t, from 21.4 mln t in Jan-Mau 2024. To the EU, Iraq exported 8.7 mln tonnes in Jan-May 2025, down -35.1% y-o-y compared to the same period of 2024. To South Korea volumes of Iraqi oil declined by -4.1% y-o-y in Jan-May 2025 to 6.3 mln tonnes”.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide