‘Major Setback’ Looms if IMO’s Net Zero Framework Fails Adoption: ING
With the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) voting on the proposed Net Zero Framework (NZF) this week, ING said the outcome remains uncertain amid mounting US opposition and threats of retaliatory tariffs.
“The US is clearly pressuring other member states to reject the agreement and is threatening retaliatory tariffs,” Rico Luman, senior economist at ING, said in an emailed statement on Tuesday.
“This essentially amounts to coercing countries into aligning with its position, which is unjust.”
He noted that earlier this year, there was a clear majority in favour of the deal—including support from large container lines, shipping bodies such as BIMCO, ICS and WSC, and major ports.
“It would be a major setback if this derails the adoption and implementation of the new climate strategy, which was intended to be a global breakthrough and a replacement for fragmented regional initiatives,” Luman said.
Luman argued that concerns about higher freight costs are exaggerated.
“Even if shipping costs were to rise by up to 10%, this would barely affect consumer prices, as shipping typically represents only a small fraction of total product costs,” he said.
“In contrast, the various direct import tariffs that we’re currently seeing are far more damaging economically.”
If the NZF fails to pass, Luman warned that the delay could be damaging to both regulatory and industry-level planning.
“Implementation typically requires years of preparation, both for regulators and companies,” he said.
“Without regulatory certainty now, investments in low-carbon technologies will be postponed, making it doubtful that the 2040 targets can be achieved.”
He added that while the IMO could consider a more flexible timeline, a long wait for political change would not be viable.
“Waiting for a change in US leadership is unlikely to be a strategy that works,” he said.
“It may help if large blocs—especially China—publicly speak out their support and lobby for it.”
